(Note that our entrepreneurial journalism course is underwritten by the McCormick Foundation; our work in new business models is underwritten by the McCormick Foundation and Knight Foundation; and our work in new business models in hyperlocal is underwritten by the Carnegie Corporation of NY.)

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There is a future for news – a sustainable and once-again profitable future with the prospect of expanding and improving journalism by taking it deeper into our communities with increased relevance, engagement, accountability and efficiency.

A team of business analysts and journalists in the City University of New York Graduate School of Journalism’s New Business Models for News Project (funded by the Knight Foundation), which I direct, tried to answer the hard questions that have been asked since news organisations began suffering business challenges – and more recently, bankruptcy. Namely: what happens to journalism in a city when its last daily newspaper dies?

Or to put it another way: will there be a market demand for journalism? Can the market meet this demand? And who will pay for the journalism we need? These are business questions and so we sought business answers in research with a wide range of news companies.

The most startling and hopeful number we found is this: some hyperlocal bloggers, serving markets of about 50,000 people, are bringing in up to $200,000 a year in advertising. These are sustainable businesses and we believe they are critical elements of the future of local news – a future no longer controlled by a single newspaper but instead by an ecosystem made up of many players with varying motives, means and models, working collaboratively in networks.

We see the faint beginnings of this ecosystem today in the 10,000 hyperlocal bloggers who operate in the US, according to the hyperlocal network outside.in. They are being joined, almost daily it seems, by unemployed professional journalists intent on continuing to report and eating while doing so – for example the New Jersey Newsroom, the Ann Arbor Chronicle, and My Football Writer in Norwich. At CUNY, we surveyed more than 100 of these local-site proprietors and some are becoming profitable.

Keep in mind that few, if any, of these bloggers and journalists have experience in business, advertising or sales. So in our project, we suggest that there are many ways to optimise their businesses. Start by improving the products and services they offer to local traders. Then add the potential of regional advertising that will need outlets when the metro paper dies, as well as smaller networks made up of a few towns or built around interests such as parenting or sports. We even see potential for e-commerce revenue, following the example of the Telegraph, which sells hangers and hats, and now Utah’s Salt Lake Tribune, which has begun selling homes.

Bottom line: after three years, we project that a blogger could hire editorial staff and advertising help – citizen salespeople who help support the citizen journalists – and net $148,000 out of $332,000 revenue. That’s a conservative estimate when you consider that a community weekly paper in such a town probably earns between $2m-$5m.

We still see a role for a news organisation – the successor to the newspaper newsroom – that covers city-wide stories, provides the best reporting that will remain the lifeblood of local journalism, and works collaboratively with many in the community. It is the largest member of the ecosystem but with a staff of 100 instead of 1,000 – and without the cost of printing and distribution – it is much smaller than the old newspaper and that is what makes it profitable. In the US, we have seen not-for-profit versions of this new news organisation rise in San Diego, Minneapolis and New Haven.

There are more contributors to the metro news ecosystem: technology and sales support organisations that enable these players to operate as part of ad and content networks; publicly supported and not-for-profit entities (public media, an individual reporter supported by pledges using services such as spot.us, or a foundation-supported organisation); transparency of government actions and information (which we believe is critical to enabling any citizen to become a watchdog); national networks and the immeasurable but invaluable force of volunteers who contribute to public knowledge, because they care.

Adding this all together, our models projected editorial staff of 277, equivalent to a current newsroom in our hypothetical city of 5 million but now highly distributed among many new entities. We forecast total revenue totalling 10%-15% of that of the newspaper – which is about what most papers earn online today. At that level, we see sustainable journalism of scale but we also see great potential for growth, especially if journalists learn to take advantage of the social engagement the internet enables.

Ours is only one optimistic vision. There is no way to tell if we are right until journalists, business people, advertisers, technologists and citizens invest in the future instead of merely trying to protect their past. The incumbents are talking about building pay walls. Google has just offered its Checkout payment system to enable micropayments – which may be less of a rescue for papers than for the rare unpopular Google feature. Meanwhile, the entrepreneurs we interviewed are building new news companies for the new ecosystem.

What’s fascinating is that Galant and Willse extend the idea of local networks.
* Galant wished for a local associated press that would enable news organizations and local blogs to share content and distribute each other.
* Galant at first resisted the idea of ad networks because, to date, they devalue sites and she’s already getting national and regional ads – but then, when asked whether she’d want a piece of advertising that would be up for grabs if a metro paper dies, she relented. The problem is that we need a new word and reputation for networks.
* Willse proposed a co-op apartment model in which the members of the ecosystem/network (call it what you will) engage others – a super – to perform mutual tasks (that’s the role of the framework in our NewBizNews models; it’s what Mark Potts’ Growthspur hopes to provide as a service).
* Galant and Willse also liked the idea of collaborating on journalism, doing more as a group than any of its members could do alone. That’ll be the subject of their next lunch.

It is gratifying to see these people who work in the heart of local adopting and extending some of the ideas we discussed at the Aspen Institute. (The New Business Models for News Project has been funded by the Knight Foundation.)

By the way, we will hold another meeting in New York to discuss the models, sometime in early November (as soon as I’m sure I’ll be back in full fettle). In the meantime, please take a listen:

Jarvis made one error: the new news organization’s editorial staff after three years is 46; total is 90.

And here, again, is the presentation, which uses new software from Prezi. Just click within the screen once the presentation starts and you will advance to the next screen.

Click here to see the presentation full-screen.

Tristan is the founder of Apture. Similar to two other Stanford computer scientist, Tristan understands and wants to improve how people find information on the web. Apture allows reporters to link out easily without necessarily losing the reader to another page.

More intriguing to me, however, is Tristan’s general experience as a young journalistically minded entrepreneur.What has he learned and what is advice to those that may come after him?

The first half of this interview focuses on Apture and his experience creating it – the second half about working on a startup in general. Never quit…..and be honest with yourself.

Untitled from Digidave on Vimeo.

Opportunities:

1.  Local – While we didn’t get to the local discussion until the end, this was clearly seen as the biggest opportunity.  And not just because we want to help Google’s Eric Stein hit his numbers.  The reselling of AdSense by news brands who have local salesforces is a substantial opportunity.  Businesses like Reach Local are ready to cut out local newspaper salesforces.  And, there’s an opportunity even if you don’t have a salesforce to work through businesses like Clickable to help Joe the Plumber reach the local audience through the newspaper’s site.

2.  Data Sales.  It’s already a vibrant business for many publishers.  Whether it is through selling data to providers like Tacoda or Ascerno, using other data services to create B2B or local services, news publishers are sitting on top of a meaningful amount of data that can drive revenue.

3.  Ad Networks, when managed right, are also an opportunity.  When tied in with data, ad networks can unlock value that publisher otherwise can’t sell.  Whether this is good or bad over the long term is still a question.  Should sites follow the Washington Post and ESPN and cut out Ad Networks entirely?  Many in the room felt that Ad Networks allow the best news brands to focus on selling their high-value inventory themselves while delivering extra monetization for unsold inventory.   The other side of the argument – that Ad Networks create channel conflict and undermine brands – carries merit.  Success comes from managing what inventory is given to Ad Networks and what isn’t.

4.  The technology to create a totally effecient market exists today.  While online ads are now part of a big distributed network where frequently the seller of the ad isn’t the publisher of the conent, the market is still inefficient.  Only reselling AdSense has delivered on this promise.  The other parts of the chain, including Ad Exchanges, are starting to gain acceptance, but are not yet easy for publishers to scale.  In the future this will change and create more opportunities.

5.  Smaller scale opportunities include:  Subscriptions for specific high-value content, but not for general news; Branded content, but more of a niche solution; In Germany, Focus is directly selling products as well as doing lead generation; Virtual currencies may present an opportunity down the road; Video is an opportunity, but it’s comparatively small.

So, why isn’t this working?

Measurement.  The lack of reliable metrics are holding growth back (note, this is a challenge for everyone in online advertising, not just news).  This is an issue that lacks short-term solutions.  But, incremental progress keeps being made and eventually a solution should emerge.

The challenge of creating a growth business inside of a mature business.  For instance, objectively, reselling ad sense makes sense.  But implementation has been tied up with internally slow decisionmaking and technical implementation.

The mindset of replacing print losses with digital presents a fundamental challenge.  It doesn’t align with where consumer behavior is going to be.  And, the timeline for building digital value doesn’t line up with the realities of the declining print business.  Competitors by contrast, are able to focus on just scaling their digital businesses at their natural pace.  News brands that solve this problem will be the big winners.

And now the list of ideas we came up with for further discussion:  AdSense, Display, Online Video, Lead Generation, Direct Transactions/Retail, Conferences, Co-branded content, Subscriptions, Syndication, Data Mining, Product placement, Auction Model, Market Research, Licensing, Republishing web to print, Sponsored Feeds, Virtual Goods, Email.